Polymarket

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Betting Market: US Strike on Venezuela Wasn't an 'Invasion'

$6.5M in bets could rest on Polymarket's ruling, which some call 'plainly absurd'

(Newser) - An online betting site that attracted millions of dollars worth of bets related to Venezuela's future is now under fire for declaring that the US special forces raid that seized the country's leader did not amount to an American invasion. Polymarket, a fast-growing prediction platform, ruled that its...

Prediction Traders Rapidly Wagered on Maduro's Ouster

Prediction market odds swung sharply after US airspace directive

(Newser) - Traders on a popular crypto-based prediction site spent Friday night rapidly rewriting the odds on Venezuela's leader losing power this month, the Wall Street Journal reports. On Polymarket, a site where users wager on political and world events, the implied probability that President Nicolás Maduro would be out...

Time Person of the Year May Not Be a Person at All

Betting markets predict artificial intelligence will beat all human contenders for the honor

(Newser) - Artificial intelligence is emerging as the frontrunner for Time magazine's Person of the Year, according to bettors on Polymarket , who see AI as having a better shot than any human candidate, including President Trump, who Axios notes took the honor last year . AI had a 46% chance of being...

Bettors See a New Rising Name for 2028 Race

Marjorie Taylor Greene is now ranked No. 3 at Polymarket

(Newser) - Marjorie Taylor Greene may be quashing reports about a 2028 run, but bettors are apparently not buying it. One of the bigger betting markets, Polymarket, now has the soon-to-be-former congresswoman ranked third among Republicans, reports the Daily Beast . Greene sits at 5%, behind Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 8%...

FBI Raids NYC Home of Betting Firm's CEO

Shayne Coplan calls development 'discouraging' after Polymarket correctly predicted a Trump win

(Newser) - Polymarket, the betting market that drew attention by correctly predicting a win by Donald Trump in the 2024 election, is now earning new headlines for a stickier reason. The New York Post reports that early Wednesday, the FBI raided the Manhattan residence of CEO Shayne Coplan, with a source telling...

It Was Also a Huge Win for Prediction Markets

'Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else,' chief executive boasts

(Newser) - "Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else," Shane Coplan, chief executive of the prediction market, crowed in an X post on Wednesday. The crypto-based platform, which calls itself the "world's largest prediction market," was among the betting markets that correctly predicted...

In the Betting World, a 'Mystery' Over Pro-Trump Wagers

Polymarket has seen a $30M 'wave' of Trump bets in recent days, from just 4 accounts

(Newser) - The self-proclaimed "world's largest prediction market" is going big on a Donald Trump win this election cycle, based on what the Wall Street Journal calls a "mystery $30 million wave of pro-Trump bets" that have proliferated in recent days. The paper reports that at the start of...

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