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Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off
Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off
analysis
Oct 9, 2008 8:55 AM CDT

Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off

Cell phones, turnout, and prejudice threaten to skew forecasts

(Newser) - Pollsters worry that a growing affinity for cell phones (most surveys rely on landlines), unspoken racial biases, and tough-to-predict turnout among young people and black people could skew their predictions come November, writes Mark Blumenthal in the National Journal. When pollsters "compare notes this year, worry is the prevailing...

Poll: McCain Getting Deeper in the Hole

Obama opens up 49%-43% national lead amid economic turmoil

(Newser) - Barack Obama has boosted his nationwide lead with his response to the economic crisis and debate performance, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. The candidate now leads John McCain 49%-43%, a 4-point jump from two weeks ago. Obama has also swayed independent voters, turning McCain’s 13-point...

Obama Stakes 8-Point Lead
 Obama Stakes 
 8-Point Lead 

Oct 6, 2008 6:46 PM CDT

Obama Stakes 8-Point Lead

(Newser) - Barack Obama is pulling away from John McCain in two new national CNN polls. One has Obama ahead by 8 points, the other 7, a substantial rise from the 4-point lead he held less than a month ago. The Wall Street crisis, President Bush's abysmal ratings, and voters' belief that...

Fake Polls Smear 'Muslim' Obama

Callers link candidate to Hamas, imply he is a Muslim in calls

(Newser) - The ugly tactic of “push polling” has resurfaced in key swing states, as fake pollsters seek to influence voters with scam questions that present an unfavorable view of Barack Obama, the Guardian reports. On one call, a Jewish voter in Pennsylvania says, she was asked if she would vote...

Debate Polls: Biden Wins, Palin Gets a Boost

Viewers say Biden better-prepared, Palin more likeable

(Newser) - Joe Biden won last night’s debate, polls from CNN and CBS show, but Sarah Palin held her own, improving her image with many responders. Some 51% of viewers polled told CNN that Biden did “the best job,” compared to 36% who preferred Palin. In the CBS poll,...

Confidence in Palin Plunges
 Confidence in Palin Plunges 
Oct 2, 2008 8:13 AM CDT

Confidence in Palin Plunges

Poll finds doubts about Palin's ability to lead dragging down GOP ticket

(Newser) - Voter confidence in Sarah Palin's ability to lead has taken a dive, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. Some 60% of voters now believe she lacks the experience to be president and a third are less inclined to vote for John McCain because she's on the GOP ticket....

Poll: Obama Outflanking McCain in Key States

Economic worries give Obama the edge in 5 battleground states

(Newser) - Vital swing states are swinging in Barack Obama's direction,  the latest CNN poll finds. The candidate has opened up leads over John McCain in Florida, Nevada and Missouri, while widening his margins in Virginia and Minnesota. The boost has come largely from moderates impressed by Obama's debate performance and...

In Poll, More Blame GOP, Bush for Bailout Failure

90% worry economy will suffer more

(Newser) - A poll shows that 44% of Americans blame Republicans and 21% Democrats for the failed bailout, though a majority thought the plan didn't go far enough to protect the public, reports the Washington Post. Respondents were split on the bill: 45% were for it, 47% against it. Still, almost 90%...

US War on Terror Hasn't Hurt Al-Qaeda: World Poll

59% say efforts haven't damaged militants or made them stronger

(Newser) - In the eyes of many, the war on terror hasn’t damaged al-Qaeda: 29% of responders to a BBC poll conducted in 23 countries said US efforts had not affected the militant group, while 30% say al-Qaeda has actually been strengthened. Overall, 22% thought al-Qaeda had been weakened, while 34%...

Racism No Longer Throws Off Polls: Study

Voters aren't overstating support for minority candidates

(Newser) - The so-called Bradley effect, in which support for minority candidates in opinion polls isn’t matched by votes in actual elections, has disappeared, Sam Wang writes for the Princeton Election Consortium. A study of polling and outcome data from 133 gubernatorial and senate races in 1989-2006 found that before 1996,...

Obama Cracks Open Lead on Economic Fears

Poll finds Obama leading McCain by 9%; Palin approval ratings falling

(Newser) - Wall Street's worries are working in Barack Obama's favor, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. The candidate has opened up his first clear lead of the race against John McCain, 52% to 43%, with much of the boost coming from voters who see him as more capable of...

Americans Blame GOP for Economy by 2-to-1

(Newser) - Voters blame the GOP over Democrats for the Wall Street crisis by a 2-to-1 margin that may be boosting Barack Obama's overall numbers, a new poll says. Nearly half of Americans pinned blame on Republicans while only about a quarter held Democrats responsible. And Obama held a 10-point lead among...

Better Football-Watching Buddy? Obama By a Nose

Fans cross party lines in football buddy pref.

(Newser) - A slim majority of Americans would rather watch a football game with Barack Obama than John McCain, the AP reports. Though the margin is not great—50% to 47%—a poll by AP and Yahoo showed that each candidate’s appeal crossed party lines. About a tenth of Obama faithful...

Poll: Obama, McCain Tied in 5 Key States

Barack gains, Mac seen as 'typical Repub' as economy worries hit

(Newser) - The race for the White House is in a dead heat in some vital swing states, according to a new CNN poll. The poll found John McCain and Barack Obama effectively tied in Florida and Ohio while in North Carolina, Indiana, and Wisconsin—where both contenders are pouring resources—neither...

5 Reasons Mac Is Now Ahead
 5 Reasons Mac Is Now Ahead 
Sep 14, 2008 11:53 AM CDT

5 Reasons Mac Is Now Ahead

(Newser) - Barack Obama's juggernaut rose on a (really) unpopular Republican presidency, an unpopular war, and a lousy economy. So why is John McCain suddenly ahead in the polls? Politico tracks five trends that have thrown the Democrats for a loop:
  1. McCain successfully established himself as a change agent, eroding Obama’s
...

McCain, Obama in Dead Heat: Poll
McCain, Obama in
Dead Heat: Poll
Sep 9, 2008 4:24 AM CDT

McCain, Obama in Dead Heat: Poll

Gains among white women give GOP momentum

(Newser) - The John McCain/Sarah Palin ticket has all but wiped out Barack Obama's lead, according to a Washington Post/ABCNews poll. White women voters now back McCain by a 12% margin, a sharp change from Obama's 8% edge among the same voters before the conventions. They view McCain as being better able...

Palin Approval Runs Along Partisan Lines

Poll: VP pick creates sharp divides, making overall impact a wash

(Newser) - About half of the public had a favorable first impression of vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin, and that half consists primarily of Republicans, a new ABC News poll finds. This not-so-shocking divide mirrors the numbers on Joe Biden: his candidacy makes 22% of people more likely to support the Obama ticket...

Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead
 Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead
Aug 20, 2008 8:35 AM CDT

Poll: McCain Takes 5-Point Lead

Negative campaign erases Obama's July edge

(Newser) - John McCain has erased Barack Obama’s 7-point July advantage to take a 46%-41% lead in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, Reuters reports. McCain has turned around a perceived  weakness on economy to now be favored by a 9% margin on the economy. The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday, as...

Why This Year's Pollsters Are Stumped

(Newser) - This year's presidential race is bamboozling many a pollster. Todd Domke looks at some of skewing factors for the Boston Globe:
  • Race: White voters might be reluctant to tell pollsters they oppose a black candidate. Tom Bradley, remember, led the polls for California governor but lost the race. Then again,
...

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama
Low-Income Workers Favor Obama
Aug 4, 2008 10:22 AM CDT

Low-Income Workers Favor Obama

Most doubt outcome of election will change their personal finances

(Newser) - Low-income workers favor Barack Obama over John McCain by a whopping 2 to 1 margin, a new Washington Post poll shows, but they doubt that Obama or any other politician will improve their lives. Obama owes much of his edge to overwhelming support from black and Hispanic voters, but even...

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