A new analysis suggests the human cost of the war in Ukraine is approaching a staggering milestone. A forthcoming report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that by this spring, Russian and Ukrainian troops killed, wounded, or missing will near 2 million. The think tank puts Russian casualties at almost 1.2 million and Ukraine's at close to 600,000, for a combined toll of roughly 1.8 million so far, the New York Times reports. Independent verification is difficult: Moscow is widely believed to underreport its losses, and Kyiv does not release full figures. The CSIS drew on US and UK government estimates and other open sources.
The CSIS says Russia now occupies about a fifth of Ukraine but has taken roughly 1.5% more territory since January 2024, in some areas moving forward at only tens of feet per day. The study estimates nearly 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the February 2022 invasion, and 415,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded in 2025 alone—about 35,000 a month. It puts total Ukrainian combat deaths between 100,000 and 140,000. "No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities since World War II," the study says.
Both sides have adapted tactics under near-constant drone surveillance: Russia has scaled back large armored movements in favor of small infantry and motorcycle units, while Ukrainian drone operators scan snow for tracks and footprints, the Times reports. Russia has sustained its manpower through its first draft since World War II, recruitment of prisoners and debtors, and financial incentives, and has also fielded as many as 15,000 North Korean troops, many of whom South Korean officials say have been killed.
The casualty report was released as rare three-way talks among Russian, Ukrainian, and US officials have produced what leaders described as modest progress toward a revised peace plan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv is ready for more meetings, and the Kremlin signaled negotiations would continue. But whether Moscow will buy into any agreement remains uncertain. Officials said Tuesday that a drone bombardment of Odesa in southern Ukraine killed three people and injured at least 23, including two children and a pregnant woman, the AP reports. "Each such Russian strike undermines diplomacy, which is still ongoing, and hits, in particular, the efforts of partners who are helping to end this war, Zelensky said.
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