President Volodymyr Zelensky's plan to end Ukraine's nearly three-year war with Russia has received mixed reactions from Western allies. The "victory plan" that Zelenskyy outlined at home and abroad includes a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO and permission to use Western long-range missiles to strike military targets in Russia—two steps Kyiv's allies have been reluctant to support before. US backing is crucial if Zelenskyy is to win support from other allies for proposals he believes are necessary to strengthen Ukraine's position on the battlefield and ahead of any peace negotiations. But analysts say Biden administration officials seem unlikely to make a decision before Nov. 5, the AP reports.
"They seem to be just doing very little now and waiting for the election," said Phillips O'Brien of the University of St. Andrews, Scotland. "So much of the strategy will live or die in Washington." Analysts said the plan is a step in the right direction for Ukraine's military efforts. They also described it as ambitious, given allies' fears of escalation with nuclear-armed Russia. Presenting the plan now puts on the radar for the next US administration, analysts said. After returning from making his case to the European Council, Zelenskyy said he expects the White House to provide feedback, per the AP.
- The proposal: Zelensky laid out the five-point plan as Ukraine's troops struggle to hold back Russia's slow but steady advances in eastern Ukraine. The plan includes three "secret annexes" that were presented only to certain leaders. It also addresses partners' concerns about Ukraine's strategy after the failed summer 2023 counteroffensive.
- The goals: Zelenskyy described the main goal as "to strengthen us and force Russia to come to the negotiating table with all partners." The plan won't immediately alter the battlefield situation, but it will help Ukraine wear down Russia and add means to keep going in the attrition war. Ukrainian think tank analyst Yurii Bohdan said the goal is get resources. "To win such war (of attrition), Ukraine needs to increase its resilience and exhaust its opponent," said Ukrainian anlayst Glib Voloskyi. "The side that falls last wins."
- Allies' response: US reaction was muted and noncommittal, though it did issue a new $425 million package of security assistance for Ukraine the day that Zelensky presented the plan to lawmakers. "It's not my position to publicly evaluate his plan," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. "We have been supporting him by providing security assistance in a major way for 2½ years. We are going to continue to do that." In Europe, reactions ranged from categorical opposition to strong support. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated in Kyiv on Saturday that he will work with Ukraine to rally other nations to get behind the proposal. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stood by his refusal to supply Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Kyiv. "We are supporting Ukraine as strongly as possible," Scholz said. "At the same time, we are taking care that NATO does not become a party to the war so that this war doesn't culminate in an even bigger catastrophe." Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called Zelensky's plan "more than frightening" in a Facebook post. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called it "a set of incoherent slogans."
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